News and Analysis: 30 Nov-4 Dec 09 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 4 Dec 09:

UN body wants probe of climate email row: Dr Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the UN's leading body for assessing climate change science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, told BBC Radio the claims that UK scientists manipulated global warming data to boost the argument it is man-made were serious and should be investigated, BBC News, 4 Dec 09 (U East Anglia--Chair named to the inquiry into the allegations vs Climate Research Unit, 3 Dec); and

From our archive: The alleged CRU emails are available at eastangliaemails, and with the data and models at WikiLeaks.

Global economy to rise by 2.4% in '10, but recovery still 'fragile' - UN: The UN warned Wed of a risk of a double-dip recession next yr if the wrong policies are implemented. It noted that while an increasing no. of nations showed positive growth since the 2nd qtr and the recovery continued to build in the 3rd qtr, "because of the steep downturn in the beginning of the yr, world gross product is estimated to fall by 2.2% for '09." The forecast was made ahead of the launch next mth of the 'World Econ Situation and Prospects', a yearly report by the UN's Dept Econ Soc Affairs, Conf Trade and Devt (Unctad), and its 5 regional commissions, UN News, 2 Dec 09

Coffers: The BRICs Nifty 50--The emerging markets (EM) and developed markets (DM) winners: The credit crunch has acted as a catalyst for global econ rebalancing by accelerating the increase in US savings and the simultaneous rise in BRICs' consumption. We estimate that 2 bln people could join the global middle class by 2030, mainly from BRICs. These trends provide excellent opportunities for the best positioned cos. from both DM and EM. We have identified 2 new 'BRICs Nifty 50' baskets: 50 potential winners from EM, and 50 DM cos. w/ BRICs exposure, Goldman Sachs, Nov '09 (w/ brief intro)

Posted on Thu, 3 Dec 09:

Doha deadlock defeats trade ministers: Deadlock at the WTO once again defeated ministers trying to open up talks on a global trade liberalization pact ahead of a '10 deadline, w/ developing nations taking a constructive stance. A group of 22 developing nations produced a tariff-cut deal negotiated on the sidelines of the ministerial meeting in Geneva, saying it demonstrated that they were not the cause of the Doha stalemate The deal agreed yesterday by the 22 nations was aimed at slashing tariffs by at least 20% on 70% of goods traded w/in the bloc, Ag. France-Presse (courtesy Kuwait Times), 3 Dec 09 (The News/ Pakistan.--Developing nations agree on tariff-cut deal)

Highest living costs for expats worldwide are in Luanda, Tokyo and Oslo: Angola's capital, Luanda, remains the most expensive location in the world for foreigners. Items frequently purchased by expats are very expensive due to the nation's damaged infrastructure - a result of decades of war. Tokyo is no.2, w/ the stronger yen outweighing the impact of deflation. Norway's capital, Oslo, is no.3, due to a strong currency w/ the rise in oil prices. Exchange rate fluctuations have been the main factor influencing changes in the cost of living over the past yr, acc to the latest twice-yearly survey comparing a basket of goods and services in over 390 locations worldwide, ECA Intl/ UK, 2 Dec 09

Geoffrey Heal: Can renewable energy save the world?--Can renewable energy save the planet from climate change, and do so at a reasonable cost? We can replace some fossil fuel power w/ renewable power w/o a major cost increase, but we cannot hope to replace a major fraction of our fossil power w/ intermittent power sources such as wind and solar energy - unless we can develop energy storage technologies, says Columbia U environmental economist, VoxEU, 29 Oct 09

Posted on Wed, 2 Dec 09:

Climate Research Unit head steps down pending an ongoing inquiry: The CRU head announced Tue he will stand aside until the completion of an independent review resulting from allegations following the hacking and publication of emails from the Unit, U East Anglia, 1 Dec 09 (Penn State U statement on its Earth Sci Ctr head, 1 Dec [pdf] | Alleged CRU emails; and data and models also at WikiLeaks)

The new decade could be a milestone for intl development: Q&A with outgoing OECD Devt Ctr director Louka Katseli--Q: As an economist who has headed a devt econ think tank, what impact do you think the global econ crisis will have on the attitude of OECD nations towards developing nations? Do you believe that 'milestones' for intl devt - 2010, a new decade, eg - can contribute to focusing more strongly on strategies? If so, what targets would you like to see adopted for the incoming decade?, OECD, 18 Nov 09

Seth Jones: Path to a Pashtun rebellion in Afghanistan--The debate in the US has become hijacked by an obsession w/ US troop numbers. But this discussion misunderstands the subtle nuances of fighting a war in areas inhabited by fiercely independent Pashtun tribes, whose culture and traditions are under severe threat from the Taliban, says author of In the Graveyard of Empires, Washington Post (courtesy Rand), 2 Oct 09 (WSJ--The key to Afghanistan)

Posted on Tue, 1 Dec 09:

Investors adjust attitude on state-linked risk: The looming default at Dubai World raises the question of whether investors are accurately assessing risk at govt-linked debt issuers around the world. The govt of the emirate of Dubai clarified yesterday that it would not back up the debt of its wholly-owned enterprise Dubai World. Some debt-holders seem to have assumed Dubai, or perhaps its neighbor Abu Dhabi, would step in if the heavily leveraged Dubai World had trouble making payments, Globe and Mail/ Canada, 1 Dec 09

Daron Acemoglu: Creating a world without poverty--What makes a nation rich? One economist's big answer: Say you're a world leader and you want your nation's economy to prosper. According to this Clark Medal winner '05 (for the American economist under 40 who has made the most significant contribution to economics--Ed.) from MIT, there's a simple solution: start with free elections, Esquire, 18 Nov 09

Posted on Mon, 30 Nov 09:

Asia stocks rebound after UAE pledges bank support: The UAE's central bank helped soothe investor fears, at least for now, by pledging yesterday to make extra funding available to all banks in the nation, incl foreign institutions w/ local branches. However, the announcement, aimed at shoring up confidence and averting a bank run, did not mention any specific help for Dubai. The troubled emirate said last Wed it now needed at least a 6-mth reprieve from paying its $60B debt, AP (courtesy China Post/ Taiwan), 30 Nov 09 (IMF on Dubai)

George Monbiot: Pretending the climate email leak isn't a crisis won't make it go away--Yes, the emails were obtained illegally. Yes, all of us say things in emails that would be excruciating if made public. Yes, some of the comments have been taken out of context. But there are some messages that require no spin to make them look bad. No one has been as badly let down by the revelations in these emails as those of us who have championed the science. We should be the 1st to demand that it is unimpeachable, not the last, says believer in and author on global warming, Guardian, 25 Nov 09 (His previous post | Wikipedia overview | U East Anglia to make all climate data accessible | Alleged climate emails | WSJ--Excerpts)

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